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I watched the Sixers lose their third straight game this afternoon, and I can’t seem to get over it. What is the deal with this team? I feel like I am fairly knowledgeable when it comes to the four major sports, but I have no idea what is going on with this team. I have a lot more questions than I do answers, and all I can think to do is put those questions out into the world and see if an answer gets back to me. So here goes


Why didn’t I see Marreese Speights until half way into the third quarter?

I’m not the biggest stat-head, but those who are seem to love John Hollinger’s PER statistic which can be found on ESPN.com. It measures a player’s statistical impact based on playing time. According to this formula the 11th most effective big man in the NBA (PF or C) is Marreese Speights. If you were wondering Samuel Dalembert comes in at 86th of the 122 players who qualify. Not the Sabermetrics type? Not a fan of these new-fangled formula based stats? Okey-dokey, how about just some numbers that are as basic as they come: points per game. Speights averages 8 a game, meanwhile Sammy scores just 6.1 and Sammy averages 25 minutes a game to Speights’ 15! It drives me crazy, because we’re not maximizing the team’s talent. I don’t even really want Speights starting over Sammy, because I’d rather use him to spark the offense from off the bench since Sammy is untradeable and has to get minutes. For Marresse not to get a single minute in the first half is unfathomable to me. By the way, here’s a gem from today’s box score:

Sammy: 22 mins, 1-3 shooting, 7 rebs, 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 2 points
Marreese: 20 mins, 6-10 shooting, 6 rebs, 1 assist, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 12 points


Who do you want on the floor for more minutes? The thing is, when Sammy’s having a good night, he’ll get you a double-double and a few blocks, but when he’s off his game he is terrible, much like tonight. I mean 2 points in 20 minutes, if he’s not playing aggressive ball then make a change, get somebody else in the game.

What happens to the front court rotation when Brand comes back in 2009?

We have a problem here. We have Sammy, Brand, Speights, Young, Evans, Marshall, Ratliff, and Smith as our potential big men next year. Obviously I don’t expect Ratliff or Marshall to play next season for the Sixers. So how do you share 96 minutes between those six, the obvious answer is to limit greatly what Evans and Smith get in terms of minutes, but Smith will be on the return from injury and next year is your chance to see if the 7-footer has a future in this league. Reggie Evans makes $5 million each of the next two seasons, so that’s a lot of money to not play. Young and Speights need to play, and are both potential all-stars that must be allowed to blossom, of course that leaves few minutes leftover for a pair of guys in Brand and Dalembert that will make $26 million combined in 2009-10. So if benching Evans seems like a waste, find the adjective for what sitting either of those guy would be. I believe the Sixers would be best served with Iguodala, Young and Speights as the starting front court from here on out. The problem with that scenario is that the three forwards I left out will be $31+ million of next season’s $57 million (ish) salary cap. Something needs to be done about this logjam.

With limited aspirations for the 2009 playoffs, why didn’t the Sixers make a trade?

The Sixers should have done something, they could have traded away Andre Miller, who is a free agent-to-be and aging. In return they could have gotten either draft picks, or a young point guard from a borderline team that can’t wait for a youngster to develop. How about trading Miller, Evans, and a first round draft pick to Portland for LaFrentz’s contract and Rudy Fernandez? Now Portland’s starting five is Miller, Roy, Outlaw, Aldridge, and Oden. How doesn’t that make both teams better? Fernandez shoots almost 40% from 3-point range, he’s exactly the type of player the Sixers need, and Miller is the veteran leader to take Portland through the playoffs. After writing my first draft my editor told me this trade was discussed as Miller and Evans for LaFrentz, and Ed Stefanski decided to pass. I think you could have sweetened your end with a pick or Lou Williams and gotten Fernandez, who would be on the bench behind Miller and Roy in Portland’s back court anyway. Portland is one of the few teams with the financial backing to withstand the current economy without making payroll cuts. So losing the LaFrentz insurance payment isn’t as big a deal to them as it would be to another team. LaFrentz is salaried at $12 million, but he is injured so insurance will pay the owner of the contract 80% of that salary. So his contract is worth $12m in trading rights, but only $2.4 or so in real dollars, making among the most valuable assets in the league. So valuable, in fact, that if the first trade worked the Sixers could have traded it immediately and probably solved the point guard problem they just created. The Sixers missed an opportunity here.

How can the Sixers improve their team enough in the upcoming off-season to have a chance to be a factor in the 2010 playoffs?

The short answer, as far as I can tell, is that they simply can not without making some tough choices. They’ll have a mediocre draft pick, no cap space, and no movable assets aside from Thaddeus Young and Marreese Speights, the two players they least wish to trade. Somehow the team needs to rid themselves of either Brand or Dalembert, although neither has any trade value. Brand’s value is low because of injuries and a high salary, and Sammy because he may be the most overpaid player in the NBA. I doubt anyone will trade for Dalembert until the 2010 draft class signs, and he is a big expiring contract with one season remaining. Trading Brand seems like tough challenge because you won’t get value for him. Brand’s stock is at an all-time low, and he won’t be worth anything until he plays again at a high level. So I guess if I’m in charge I’d resign Miller in the off-season, then I’d trade for a starting shooting guard by packaging Young or Speights and salary, as much as parting with one of those two hurts, it’s really the only way. So hypothetically let’s say Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith, and Reggie Evans for Kevin Martin of Sacramento. I’d offer a pick if that’s what it took to get the deal done, although to add a young potential all-star along with some decent role players would probably be enough for Sacramento to accept. This gives you a starting five of Miller, Martin, Iguodala, Brand, and Dalembert with Lou Williams behind each guard and playing 25 minutes a game, and Speights behind Dalembert and Brand while logging about 35 minutes a game, and the starting big men splitting the remaining hour of playing time. That team can be a 2-4 seed in the Eastern Conference, and maybe could get to the conference finals considering the Celtics aren’t getting any younger. Of course that leaves just one final question about the Sixers future.

With LeBron James playing at a level that can only be desribed as "Jordan-esque", how can the Sixers manage to get to the NBA finals while LeBron is in the East?

Yeah, about that... This may be the biggest problem for the Sixers, that no matter what they do, it won't ever be enough to get over the top. The answer is you need to get lucky and have one of your young big men develop into a top-10 NBA talent. Unless Speights becomes the next Tim Duncan, (or at least a close knock-off)I can't see you ever passing the Cavs. The Cavs can be beat by a dominant center, as it's the only position LeBron can't defend. Aside from that unlikely scenario, I'm back to being out of answers.

Greg