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Every spring as the Phillies head south and begin spring training, I begin my own springtime tradition. My four stages of spring baseball, they are as follows:
1. Relive the previous season
2. I get overly optimistic, and find all the evidence possible to support said optimism.
3. I become a lot less optimistic, and start pointing at all the reasons the season could fall apart.
4. I cobble together an assessment based on both sides of the argument and lay out a realistic prediction.




It has been six days since the Phillies’ pitchers and catchers reported for spring training. Over the last few days, I’ve gone through all the usual stages in assessing the Phillies. I rehashed last season, and for the first time in my life I was able to indulge in this activity without any sort of black cloud hanging over it, like the man said, “World ****ing Champions!”

Once these memories were properly enjoyed, I did an about-face and began looking ahead to 2009 and the Phillies’ chances of repeating as champs. As usual I started out as an optimist, and I decided the Phillies will repeat as champions. I still believe that to this very day. Doubts, right on schedule, are beginning to creep into my thinking about the 2009 season. If the Phillies fail in 2009, it will be due to injury, which is fairly uncontrollable, or it will be due to the lack of a proven right-handed hitter in the middle of the lineup.

The Phillies have a real problem in this regard, the only players on the team who are capable of hitting 20 homers from the right side are Jayson Werth and Jimmy Rollins. Since Jimmy is your leadoff hitter, he won’t be helping round out the middle of the lineup this season, which leaves Jayson Werth. I love what Werth did in 2008, he hit .273 and averaged a home run once every 17.42 at bats. That home run rate was fantastic, and if Werth had enough at bats he would have ranked 15th in the league just between Hanley Ramirez and Prince Fielder. The optimist in me likes to think that Werth has now come into his own, and is ready to emerge as a full-time power-hitting outfielder.

The problem with Werth is that he hit only .255 against right-handed pitching with a HR per every 32.875 at bats. Not only is Werth a potential liability against right-handed pitching, he is definitely injury prone. Jayson Werth has spent time on the DL every season of his career from 2003 through 2008, and every time it was either an oblique or wrist injury. Even when healthy, Werth has never played an entire year as a starter, and if the Phillies intend to continue the platoon situation with either Stairs or Jenkins starting against right-handed pitching, then they will be playing four lefties in the middle of the order. There is also the chance that last season was a career year, and Werth may fall back to his career averages of a .263 batting average and a homerun once every 24.45 at bats.

Even more of a concern is that after Werth, there isn’t even a good right-handed hitter on the roster. Carlos Ruiz is your starting catcher, which may be good defensively, but it doesn’t provide you anything offensively. Carlos had a fine post-season, but the fact is this guy hit .219 last season. It looks like the catcher will bat eighth, regardless of who is behind the plate, since neither option behind Ruiz offers much offense to speak of. Chris Coste had an excellent rookie year, but hasn’t really done anything in either of the last two seasons, not to mention he may not even make the team. Coste’s competition for the second catcher’s position is Ronny Paulino. The former Pirate was promising in his first full season, but his career has fallen off since then, leading to his benching last season in favor of Ryan Doumit, and eventually his trade this off-season.

The most active right-handed hitter for the Phillies in 2008 was Pedro Feliz who logged 425 at bats playing third base. The problem with Feliz getting the most right-handed at bats on the team is that Pedro was an overwhelming disappointment offensively, hitting just .249 with only 14 home runs. Another concern is that Feliz underwent back surgery in the off-season, and the team doesn’t sound completely sure that he’ll be ready for opening day. I guess I also have to mention Eric Bruntlett, although I’m at a loss as to why he’s even coming to camp. I think if Utley is healthy and/or if any of the Jason Donald-Miguel Cairo-Marcus Giles trio even show up with a pulse we can safely say we’ve seen the last of the beard that wouldn’t die. Bruntlett hit just .217 last season with almost zero power.

Not everyone is as concerned as I am with the lack of balance to this lineup, and with Utley, Howard, Rollins, and Ibanez all in our lineup I understand why. The problem I have is that on most days you will send out a lineup with 3 excellent left-handed hitters, 2 switch-hitters who are better when hitting left-handed, and 3 right-handed batters; one of whom is average (Werth), one below average (Feliz), and another who is a poor hitter (Ruiz). It should also be noted that both Werth and Feliz play at premiere positions for offensive production, and having these players not produce at the rate the better players at those positions do eliminates your advantage of getting the most production in the league from second base.

I really like the Phillies chances of reaching the post-season in 2009, but if they have a weakness, this is it. I’d really like to see the team acquire somebody to help fix this lopsided problem. There was talk of adding Nomar Garciaparra, Moises Alou, or Mark Grudzielanek as recently as this month, but those talks have all quieted. I’d like to think that before camp ends that either Jenkins or Stairs will be moved to make room on the bench. If that doesn’t happen, and the Phillies come north with the team they have now, it is very obvious what their biggest flaw is, hopefully it doesn’t cost them in the long run.