Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Free Agency 2009

Posted on 7:58 PM by Steve


Although you could argue that the off-season began the second the Eagles fell to Arizona in the NFC championship, it is now official. With the Pro Bowl over, and no more games remaining on the 2008-09 schedules, now it’s time to begin the fight for 2009-10, and the quest for Super Bowl XXIV. Over the last few weeks every possible free agent has been signed in some hypothetical or another, as well as every Eagles player either cut or traded to make way for a better player or plan. Now it’s my turn to play the GM game.

Despite what you may hear on the radio, the Eagles 2008 season was a success. They went further than most fans expected, and gained a ton of important experience for a young defense that retains just two starters from the ’04 Super Bowl team.

Also, the Birds are in the pole position going forward in the NFC East. The only team the Eagles currently trail in the East’s hierarchy would be the New York Giants, a team currently positioned to retreat slightly in 2009, unless they can get a huge contribution from their draft class. The Giants will probably lose Plaxico Burress for the season, as well as at least half of their pair of 1,000-yard running backs, Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward. The return of Osi Umenyiora will help bolster their already stout defense, but the offense that sputtered out at the end of ’08 looks like it will be back nearly man for man in 2009. The Giants have a little salary cap space, but a big part of what they do have will go to bringing back Jacobs, and the rest probably isn’t enough to make a significant signing.



The team that finished just a half-game back of the birds, The Dallas Cowboys, is in an even worse position. First of all, they self-destructed to close out 2008, and they made no changes to the team. Wade Phillips was retained, so don’t expect Dallas’s penchant for stupid penalties and media circuses to subside any time soon. Jason Garrett is back as O coordinator, and Garrett still wants to run the ball and use Jason Witten as his primary passing target. The problem is that TO is also back, and he’ll never allow that to happen peacefully. As long as TO wears blue and silver, he demands that he be the central focus of their offense. Wade and Garrett are helpless to stop Owens’ outbursts as long as Jerry Jones is in charge. Jerry loves his “star” players and Jones seems to be more than willing to condone selfish behavior. It should probably also be mentioned that Dallas has just 2.75million in cap space, hardly enough to scratch the surface of free agency. (Cue Peter Faulk) “Just one more thing…” I guess it’s relevant that Tony Romo has been terrible in three straight December/Januarys and there are serious doubts in the minds of the team and the fans if he can win the big game, and the pressure only grows with each failure to perform in season-closing moments.



The Redskins aren’t nearly as talented as the rest of the division, and they have no cap space. I wasn’t being glib by the way; they have literally zero dollars available as of this writing. I can’t see this team escaping the cellar in 2009, unless one of the three other QB’s in the division ends up injured or just plain melting down. (Not impossible for any of the four starting QB’s in this division. The funny thing is that I’d rate McNabb, Romo, and Manning all as among the league’s 10 best, yet if any of them washed-out next year I would hardly be surprised. What does that say about the state of the NFL Quarterback nowadays?)



Now back to the Eagles. They have a young excellent defense that returns all 11 starters. They have several needs on the offensive side of the ball, but they have over 45.2 million dollars to spend once they get credit for their LTBE bonuses (Unearned bonuses that were counted against the 2008 cap, that now get added to the 2009 cap since they were unattained). Normally the Eagles would hold back some of that spending power unless they LOVED somebody, but this year you can’t roll over salary, because there is no salary cap to protect in 2010. That means the Eagles have 45.2 million to spend or lose. (Plus about 4m more once Lito and Greg Lewis are cut.) The focus of the off-season needs to be reinforcing the O-line, and adding playmakers where possible.



Now comes the fun part of this job, spending all that cash. The first thing to consider before you can really speculate on the Eagles moves is to try and predict what will go on in Carolina. The Panthers are the source of two of the most attractive players to the Eagles, OT Jordan Gross, and DE Julius Peppers. It looks like the Panthers are going to franchise Peppers, and force another team to trade for him, rather than just let him walk for nothing. That decision is much easier if they are able to resign Jordan Gross before the Feb. 19 beginning of free agency, until that date the Panthers still may franchise Gross for the second straight season and just let Peppers walk. Popular theory is that with their limited finances they can’t keep both players, although they will try. If I’m the Eagles I want Gross more than any other free agent, but to be fair Gross is going to be priority one for Carolina as well. The only thing going for the Eagles is that Gross has made it this far without resigning, so unless Carolina breaks the bank this week, it seems likely he’ll test the free agent waters. The Eagles plans are closely linked to what Carolina decides to do over the next few weeks, but here’s my outline based on the current word from Carolina.



The Offense:



QB: The Eagles will return with the same three QB’s that they had in 2008. The only possible change in the position is whether the Eagles decide to give Donovan McNabb the new deal he reportedly is seeking. I am strongly against the Eagles losing any of their cap space to rework McNabb’s deal. If Donovan can be resigned to a deal that extends the back end, but doesn’t effect his 2009 cap number, then I’m all for it. Otherwise, they need to convince Donovan to play this year out, with the guarantee that he get a new deal next season when there is no salary cap. In a perfect world they resign Donovan, and increase this year’s available money. Decision: No changes. Cap space remains at 45m.



RB: Correll Buckhalter is an unrestricted free agent (UFA from here on out), and the Eagles appear to have very little interest, which gives me a hint that they have an eye for somebody. Who ever the replacement may be isn’t simply the new #2; he needs to be the #1a to Brian Westbrook’s #1. The top free agents are the current New York Giants tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward, and both 1,000-yard backs proved they are quite capable runners who have shown a willingness to share the spotlight. The problem with signing either runner would be that each man would be expensive. Last season Michael Turner signed a 6-year/34.5 million dollar deal to join the Falcons, so there is a jumping off point for either man. Ward will cost something similar, and Jacobs would be a million or two extra for each year. For the money I’d much rather draft a running back with one of our first round picks. There are three backs expected to go in the second half of the first round, the best of this year’s crop seems to be Knowshon Moreno from Georgia, although he seems almost certainly to be off the board when the Eagles time to pick arrives. So that leaves either Chris “Beanie” Wells from Ohio State and LeSean McCoy from Pitt. I’d prefer Wells since he is much larger at 6’1” and 235 lbs. Last season Felix Jones was drafted late in the first round and received a 5 year/ 10.525m dollar deal, so there is an idea of the cost involved. Lorenzo Booker is scheduled to return as the team’s #3 back, although I’m not thrilled about what he brings to the table. Booker can be kept or replaced with a midlevel draft pick, either way I’m fine. Kyle Eckel also returns as the fullback after a decent, if unspectacular, debut season with the Birds. Decision: Do not pursue Buckhalter, cut Booker, and draft a RB in both rounds 1 and 4. Cap space reduced to approximately 43m.



WR: First thing to do is to throw the bank at TJ Houshmandzadeh; the soon-to-be former Bengal is a red zone beast and exactly the type of WR that will boost the Birds red zone performance. It will cost you a pretty penny, but it’s really what the team needs. As a ballpark, let’s say 4 years/33million. To move space on the roster, Greg Lewis needs to go away. Reggie Brown can be cut as well, freeing up 2 million or so extra, since at this point he’s your 6th receiver at best. Restricted free agent (Hereafter RFA) Hank Baskett should be resigned given that Brown is cut and his deal is cheap, either way whichever player stays is fairly inconsequential as they’ll be behind TJ, Jackson, Curtis, and Jason Avant on the depth chart. Decision: Sign Houshmandzadeh, resign Baskett, cut Reggie Brown and Greg Lewis. Cap Space reduced to approximately 35.5 million.



TE: Goodbye UFA LJ Smith. Brent Celek showed flashes over the season, and then had a break-out two touchdown performance against Arizona in the NFC championship. Celek is flawed as a player however, so reinforcements are necessary. I’d like the Eagles to grab somebody in the second round, as there are four TE’s that project as second round picks. My favorite is probably Chase Coffman, who has the best size of any of the group, and he caught 90 passes with 10 TDs last season at Missouri. Last season Dustin Keller went at the end of the first round, and got a 5-year/8.5 million dollar deal. So you can expect to pay about 1 million per year for a late second round TE. Decision: Allow LJ to leave, draft a replacement in round 2. Cap Space reduced to approximately 34.5 million.



OT: This is the most important position of the off-season. Carolina Panther Jordan Gross is about to become an UFA, and he needs to be the team’s top priority. Gross was a Pro Bowler at RT and All-Pro at LT, so he can be signed to play at either spot. I think Thomas has more to offer at this point than Runyan, but it’s harder to replace a LT than a RT, so it’s probably best to keep Jon and get Gross to replace Tra. I think your third round pick needs to be a tackle for depth, as it seems that the Eagles are now kind of thin at tackle. Gross played under the franchise tag in 2008, and made $7.5 million. The Eagles will need to pay about $8.5 million a year with a sizeable signing bonus to get Gross to join them. Decision: Resign Runyan, allow Thomas to leave, Sign Jordan Gross, draft an OT in round 3. Cap Space reduced to approximately 18 million.



G: The birds have Todd Herremanns and Shawn Andrews in line to start at guard in 2009. Nick Cole is a RFA and can play any interior position, and should be resigned for depth. Of course Shawn Andrews is a question mark after a mental health/back injury stay on the injured list in 2008. When healthy he’s among the league’s best, and hopefully he can return to form in 2009. Decision: Resign Cole. Cap Space reduced to approximately 16.5 million.



C: RFA Nick Cole returns as a back-up. Here is another chance for improvement on the Eagles. I’d like them to sign Jason Brown of the Ravens, an UFA, and make Jamal Jackson the back-up. Nick Cole can then focus solely on being the team’s third guard. Brown is young and very able to anchor the center of the line for years to come. The last young center to sign as a free agent was LeCharles Bentley with the Browns, and he received a 6-year/36 million dollar contract, although I don’t think it will take quite that much. Decision: Sign Jason Brown; refocus Nick Cole on playing guard only. Cap Space reduced to approximately 11.5 million.



The Defense:



DE: In no scenario can you get both Jordan Gross and Julius Peppers, so forget adding Peppers. The quartet of Howard, Cole, Abiamiri and Clemons all return. The only move I’d like to see would be for the Birds add a fifth end with their second of two first round selections. The Eagles hold the 28th overall pick, which was also used to select a DE in 2008, with that pick Seattle selected Lawrence Jackson and signed him for 5 years/ 11.25 million. The options at 28 appear to be either Tyson Jackson from LSU or Paul Kruger from Utah. Decision: Draft another DE in round 1. Cap Space reduced to approximately 9.5 million.



DT: Nothing doing here, keep Bunkley, Patterson and Laws. Continue to rotate Howard inside on passing downs. Decision: Stand pat. Cap Space unchanged at approximately 9.5 million.



LB: No changes here either. This is a very young, talented group that should remain intact for years to come. Decision: No Changes. Cap Space unchanged at approximately 9.5 million.



CB: Something must be done with Lito Sheppard. After failing in attempts to trade the Pro Bowl CB during the 2008 off-season, the Birds should take whatever they can get at this point, even if it’s just a third or fourth round pick. The Eagles also need to make a decision on RFA nickleback Joselio Hansen, I would prefer to retain Hansen if possible, we can match the money, but not the offer of a starting job. Rod Hood received 5 Years/15 Million when he left to go to Arizona, so it may take a similar offer to retain Hansen. Decision: Trade Sheppard for a 4th round pick, resign Hansen, draft another CB with the selection received for Lito. Cap Space reduced to approximately 6 million.



S: I’d love to see the Eagles sign RFA Dawan Landry away from the Ravens, but I don’t like giving up draft picks to sign him. So I’d only advocate signing him if you can work out a deal with Baltimore to avoid the RFA compensation, maybe something with Lito since his former secondary coach is Baltimore’s head coach. Otherwise, I guess I’d like to see the Eagles retain UFA Brian Dawkins at a deal that pays something similar to what he made last season. Sean Considine is also an UFA, (cue Bob Uecker) and I think this closes book on Sean… and Thank God! We can draft his replacement in the 5th round. Decision: Resign Dawkins, allow Considine to go, draft a safety in the 5th round. Cap Space reduced to approximately 2 million.



Special Teams:



K/P: No changes here, no free agents, no issues with the current talent. Decision: No changes. Cap Space remains at approximately 2 million.



Obviously these plans are contingent on things going according to a specific plan in Carolina. These moves show that you can come back next season as, quite possibly, the favorite to win the NFC by making smart, aggressive moves this off-season. The teams ahead of you look like they are going to take a step back, and your peers aren’t in as good a position to really step out ahead of the pack. Your defense was #3 overall last season, and they should only get better with another year of experience. The offense has concerns, but those issues can be addressed by signing proven talent to fill the voids. The contracts I laid out are accurate in their totals, and the Eagles can always front-load one or two of the deals to take further advantage of their cap situation. Remember, next season there is no limit on player salaries, and I am certain the NFC East will be by far the highest spending division in football. This will cost the Eagles their biggest advantage, so with this off-season they basically have a one-year head start on the big spending. Let’s make sure we get the most out of it.

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