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Every spring as the Phillies head south and begin spring training, I begin my own springtime tradition. My four stages of spring baseball, they are as follows:
1. Relive the previous season
2. I get overly optimistic, and find all the evidence possible to support said optimism.
3. I become a lot less optimistic, and start pointing at all the reasons the season could fall apart.
4. I cobble together an assessment based on both sides of the argument and lay out a realistic prediction.

Now that all the confetti has been swept up, all the empty champagne bottles have been recycled, and all the obscenities have been properly bleeped, we now can turn the page on a fantastic 2008 season and prepare for the task of repeating as world champions.

It is a tall order to be sure, no team has repeated as champions since the Yankees back in 2001, and no national league team has done it since the Reds did the deed back in the mid 1970’s. If you want to really see how tough it is to repeat as champs, just take a look at the Atlanta Braves. The Braves went to the playoffs in 14consecutive seasons, and they didn’t win two titles total, let alone back-to-back. So while making the playoffs gives you a chance, once you get there it’s anybody’s guess who will come out on top.

So the question then becomes, can the Phillies get back to the playoffs? And the answer I feel is a resounding yes. They are the two-time defending division champs, and they are one of four NL teams that appear to have a roster capable of a 90+ win season. I’m pretty sure 3 of the 4 playoff teams will come from that quartet of teams: Philly, Chicago, St. Louis, and New York. I think St. Louis finding success this year depends on getting Carpenter to contribute again and the Cubs taking a step backwards, which I see as a possibility.

The reason to doubt Chicago is simple in theory yet complex in its different levels, first of all they bombed in the playoffs last year, and their fan base is about where the Eagles’ is, they will not tolerate anything short of going to the championship. Exacerbating the pressure the Cubs will surely face is that their manager, Lou Piniella, is known for his fiery demeanor, and if they stumble out of the gates there is a pretty good chance the team will begin to tune out Lou’s ranting and raving. If that were to happen then they’ll be a .500 team at best. It’s also worth noting that with new ownership at Wrigley there is NO loyalty to any of the players or staff, so with the pressure turned way up across the board it’ll be interesting to see if the Cubs can break away from their recent dubious history and excel in the clutch rather than wither under its spotlight. The Cubs also lost two key players in Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa. Kerry Wood was basically replaced by Kevin Gregg, although not directly. Gregg will pitch the majority of the 8th innings, while Wood’s former setup man Carlos Marmol takes over as the team’s closer. This move seems like a smart cost-cutting move, albeit a sad one as it marks the end of Kerry Wood’s tenure in Chicago, a disappointing tenure when you consider the amazing start and how high Kerry’s ceiling was way back when. The move Chicago made that concerns me is losing Mark DeRosa and replacing his offense with Milton Bradley. Last season was the first time Bradley played in 100 games since 2004, and he played most of the time as the DH. DeRosa, meanwhile, played extensively at 4 positions last season, and is a solution to a team’s injury problems, not a cause. Not only is Bradley not as versatile or dependable, Milton is a bit of a headcase, and if Piniella gets heated early in the year these two will not get along.

The Mets only have one of these problems. They definitely improved this off-season, but their biggest problem remains their fragile psyches after two consecutive collapses in September. The Mets do have holes in their lineup at catcher, second base and the corner outfield spots, but those issues won’t make or break things for the Mets. The deciding factor for the Mets is whether or not they are prepared to step up and win games in the later innings, and win games late in the season. A fun subplot to watch this summer for Mets haters would be that JJ Putz is a secretly better pitcher than K-Rod. If K-Rod struggles at any point this year, while Putz just continues to be the pitcher he was in Seattle, then the back of the Post will be calling for a change pretty quick.

The Phillies are clearly the favorites to win the NL pennant in my mind. The three biggest reasons I have are pitching, psyche and manager Charlie Manuel. The pitching choice is obvious. They return with Cole Hamels, who is fresh off of establishing himself as a premiere pitcher in the National League, and a clear contender for the Cy Young award. Brett Myers returns after a dismal 2008. It appeared that Brett had return to form as a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy at the end of last season. Despite the disaster that was last season for Brett, he still managed to win 10 games, a number he will almost assuredly improve on if he stays healthy. Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton take up the next two spots, and both guys will pitch 200 innings and win somewhere between 12-14 games, these two are what makes pitching staffs great, having steady reliable arms in between your big guns’ starts. The fifth starter’s job is still up in the air, and looks like a 4 man race between the two favorites Kyle Kendrick, last year’s fifth starting pitcher at the season’s open, JA Happ, the team’s fifth starter when the season ended. The other options to fill out the pitching staff in 2009 are Carlos Carassco, the organization’s top pitching prospect who appears to be on the verge of making the major league team, although he may need one more season in the minors before being ready, and Chan Ho Park, a free agent addition who came over from the Dodgers. Park wants the fifth spot badly, and has by far the most experience and success, but is most likely headed to the bullpen.

Park’s addition will only make the best bullpen in the National League that much better. There is a lot of concern that JC Romero missing the first 50 games of the year is going to hurt the team, but I feel like it merely makes the best bullpen above-average for the first two months. The Phillies have every major piece returning from last season’s league leading unit. Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson each return in the first year of three year extensions to lock down the 8th and 9th innings. Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin round out the staff and will provide the team’s middle inning relief. This staff is better at the back end of the starting rotation, is better in the pen with Park over Flash Gordon, and it now has an ‘Ace’ at the top of the rotation. The Phillies haven’t had that kind of pitcher since Curt Schilling headed to the desert.

The thing that makes Cole so much better than last year, is what should make this entire team better than last year, confidence. This team knows what can do, and if you thought they were great at coming back to win games before, having that extra six ounces of confidence on your finger can only help. The Mets and Cubs have to look at themselves after each loss and have the memories of previous failures creep into their minds. The Phillies meanwhile should have an easy time shrugging off those doubts and maintaining that swagger that has lead them past the Mets each of the last two seasons.

I realize that I haven’t mentioned the Phillies offense, but that’s because that while it is the team’s biggest strength it’s not necessarily improved over last season, whereas the other areas I’m talking about are improved. My final reason I believe the Phillies are poised to repeat is Charlie Manuel, and you may be asking what’s different about Charlie this year as opposed to last, so I’ll tell you. In a word: credibility. Charlie is now a World Series champion; his words and advice are forevermore stamped with a gold seal that can not be tarnished. Charlie will still be Charlie, the guy who lets players play, yet knows how to crack skulls when need be. People like to paint Charlie as some type of country bumpkin, but he takes guys to task when they fail to play the right way. Jimmy Rollins was benched on two occasions by Charlie for infractions, and neither time did it become a controversy despite wide media reporting. Now Charlie has even more respect from his players and the media, practically eliminating any potential for an unsettled locker room to come about.

I think you can expect a fun summer, the Phillies should score more runs due to Ruiz and Feliz returning to 2007 type production. The Phillies should allow fewer runs due to an improved pitching staff headed by Cole Hamels. The Phillies should continue to stay in every game, fighting to the last out in every single contest, courtesy of their quick strike offense and their never say die attitude. I think the Phillies who swaggered into New York before, face the least pressure of any of the top three NL teams, and they are the best equipped to handle that pressure. 2009 is going to be a great season and all signs point in the Phillies favor. (Except for a very lopsided lineup, that has no real right-handed threat to speak of.)


Greg