Philly Sports Post - Home of the PSP Podcast

I already wrote about the Phillies upcoming season at length, so let's do a double header today. Here are those Washington Nationals.

The Washington Nationals

Last Season’s Result: 59-102, 5th place in the NL East

Major Offseason Changes:
• Added 1B/OF Adam Dunn (Signed from Arizona)
• Added SP Daniel Cabrera (Signed from Baltimore)
• Added SP Scott Olsen (Trade with Florida)
• Added OF Josh Willingham (Trade with Florida)
• Lost 3B Aaron Boone (Signed with Houston)
• Lost SP Tim Redding (Signed with NY Mets)

Letter Grades

• Offseason Moves: B Added Dunn to provide power and a mentor for this young nucleus. The Nats added two young, sometimes frustrating, starting pitchers in Olsen and Cabrera without giving up much of anything.

• Rotation Grade: D Sketchy group at best. Perennial headache Scott Olsen is probably your best starter, so that should tell you all you need to know. John Lannan has some potential, but only he, Olsen, and free agent Daniel Cabrera are assured spots at this time.

• Bullpen Grade: D No big names here after the departures of Jon Rauch and Chad Cordero. Joel Hanrahan looks to close after ending the 2008 season with the job.

• Lineup Grade: C+ Some power and some potential, but not enough of either. Adam Dunn will provide the power numbers in the middle of the order, but is really their only proven power producer. If youngsters Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Ryan Zimmerman play up to the hype they received coming up through the minor leagues, then this team may have a nice future. Unfortunately, their present isn’t so hot.

Player most closely linked to team’s 2009 hopes: Daniel Cabrera. After a starting his career as a promising fire-baller, Cabrera now heads to the National League as a mediocre pitcher with control problems. If Cabrera can find the strike zone consistently, then the Nats have a front of the rotation starter. If he continues to put men on base in a division with hitters like Ryan Howard, Carlos Beltran, and Hanley Ramirez lurking around every corner, then he’ll find no more success in the NL East then he did in the AL East.

Biggest Breakout Star Potential: Elijah Dukes. Elijah also is the likeliest National to breakout of prison in his lifetime as well. Dukes’ well-documented troubles aside, he showed flashes in 2008 of having 30/30 potential. If healthy all season, I doubt he finishes any lower than 25/25.

Best Case Scenario: The rotation pans out and the young hitter hit, the Nats sneak up on some teams and hang around in the wild card race into September.

Worst Case Scenario: Their flakey rotation flakes out, their young hitters don’t progress, and Adam Dunn loses interest in being the best player on another lousy team.

Prediction for 2009: 68-94, 5th place in the NL East.

Local Thoughts

By: Dave Nichols from The Nats News Network

• Letter grade for team’s off-season: B-minus The Lerners got Dunn on their terms, which was good, and the Olsen/Willingham deal certainly helped the major league product. Season ticket holders were forced to watch a AAAA team last season. But there are still huge holes in the pitching staff, both rotation and bullpen, and a viable arm in the pen would have gone a long way.

• Hinge player: Success being a relative terms here, but I think the answer here is John Lannan. He's the only "sure thing" the Nats have to count on in the rotation, and if he can't perform at least as well as last season, the rotation will be even more of a mess that it stands right now.


• Breakout Player: Clearly, Elijah Dukes. Baseball Prospectus gives him 53% breakout and 81% improve ratings, and if he can get 500 at bats, I think a .280/.380/.500 isn't out of the question. His OBP last year in 334 ABs was actually higher than that of new teammate Adam Dunn, and that includes hitting less than .200 his first 100 at bats last year.

• Prediction for 2009: I've seen all sorts of projections for this team, and they are all over the map. I'm going to be optimistically realistic and say 74-88. I don't think they escape the cellar though. They lost 102 games last year, but most people don't realize the devastation of injuries to last year's starters. Seven of the eight position players on the opening day roster spent significant time on the DL last year, and the one that didn't, Cristian Guzman, should have, as he missed two weeks with a "day-to-day" bruised thumb. 15-win improvement? It depends on the young pitching.