Philly Sports Post - Home of the PSP Podcast

The PSP 2009 MLB Preview conitnues with today's entry, the Florida Marlins.

The Florida Marlins

Last Season’s Result: 84-77, Third place in the NL East.

Major Offseason Changes

• Added RP Scott Proctor (Signed from LA Dodgers)
• Added RP Jose Ceda (Trade with Chicago)
• Added RP Leo Nunez (Trade with Kansas City)
• Lost RP Kevin Gregg (Trade with Chicago)
• Lost 1B Mike Jacobs (Trade with Kansas City)
• Lost LF Luis Gonzalez (Unsigned free agent)
• Lost SP Mark Hendrickson (Signed with Baltimore)
• Lost RP Joe Nelson (Signed with Tampa)
• Lost RP Arthur Rhodes (Signed with Cincinnati)
• Lost C Paul Lo Duca (Unsigned free agent)
• Lost RF Jacque Jones (Signed with Cincinnati)

Letter Grades

• Offseason Moves: D- The Marlins mad a nice deal in acquiring Jose Ceda for Kevin Gregg. They moved a guy with little future and got back a guy with some nice upside. The problem is that this was the only thing they did to add to the roster, aside from signing a reliever on the cheap due to his 6.05 ERA in 2008 in Scott Proctor. This team is very young and loaded with potential. The Fish are contenders right now for the wildcard, and if they would have added some free agents in this buyer’s market they’d be among the favorites. Unfortunately for their fans, Florida’s management isn’t going to invest in players until after their new stadium is completed.

• Rotation Grade: C I’m really wimping out here. The Marlins have a small army of young, high-potential arms that could go either way. This is where I have a problem with the Marlins lack of spending. A free agent like Pedro Martinez would cost very little, but provide an experienced veteran to help these kids progress while he himself gives you 20-25 starts. As far the grade goes, it’ll either be too high or too low at season’s end. If the kids pitch to potential then this staff is among the game’s best, if they struggle they’ll be among the bottom of the league. I would like them a lot better if they had an old veteran to help guide them. As it stands now they have five guys who could win 15 games, maybe 15 this season is too soon for that kind of expectation, but the talent is there.

• Bullpen Grade: D+ “I never even heard of half these guys, and the ones I know are way past their primes. A lot of these guys never had a prime.” Much like the rotation the bullpen is filled with young, cheap arms that are mostly unproven. Matt Lindstrom assumes the closer’s role to open the season now that Kevin Gregg is in Chicago. Lindstrom has never closed aside from a handful of opportunities at the end of last season, his second in the majors. Behind him there isn’t any other proven talent, although Leo Nunez has all the makings of a fine major-leaguer.

• Lineup Grade: B+ This team was 5th in runs scored in 2008, and look to be even better in 2009. There are question marks with Ramirez moving to the three hole, he has had almost all of his major league success as a leadoff hitter, but if he is going become the best player in baseball, then this will give him the RBI cred he needs. Other questions include Cameron Maybin at leadoff and Gaby Sanchez at first, if they contribute this is a great offense, if not then it is simply above average.

Player most closely linked to team’s 2009 hopes: Gaby Sanchez. The youngster will get first crack at the 1B vacancy created by the Jacobs deal. If he falters then the Marlins will probably start Dallas McPherson at third and have Jorge Cantu at first. McPherson has much better power than Sanchez, but Sanchez makes much better contact. ESPN’s Eric Karabell described Sanchez as similar, yet superior, to Casey Kotchman of Atlanta, whereas McPherson gives you a poor man’s Adam Dunn.

Biggest Breakout Star Potential: Cameron Maybin. The Marlins are going to give the 21 year-old every chance possible to win the CF job and hit leadoff this spring. If Maybin comes through, he’ll be leadoff in front of mashers Cantu, Uggla, and Ramirez and has the chance to lead the league in runs scored.

Best Case Scenario: This team is a contender, but one built on a very shaky foundation. There are too many youngsters in key roles to realistically expect 90+ wins, but I can’t say it’s not possible with the talent on this roster. Best case for this team is a playoff berth, and a run to the title. This is a very optimistic hope, but not impossible. I will say this fanbase has a TON to be excited about.

Worst Case Scenario: The young players on this team fail to come through. Young player are bound to struggle at times, and one has to wonder how this team will respond to tough times. Worst case is a 70 win season.

Prediction for 2009: 85-77, 3rd place in the NL East

Local Thoughts

By:Larry Walanski of MarlinsBaseball.com

• Letter Grade for Offseason Moves:--- I'd give the moves this offseason a C because we didn't improve or hurt the team overall with the moves. Losing Jacobs,Willingham and Olsen could be looked at negatively but in the end their losses should not impact the team greatly. In the addition by subtraction area, the Marlins removed an ineffective closer in Kevin Gregg which could result in more wins overall.

• Most Essential: --- This is a tough one because if Hanley Ramirez doesn't produce, the team will go nowhere. If Cameron Maybin fails at lead-off, the offense will struggle. If Gaby Sanchez fails as an everyday big leaguer, it could be big and so on. However, I'd say it's Matt Lindstrom that is most essential to the team's success. Lindstrom is expected to be the closer this season, and the closer's role which was held by Kevin Gregg in 2008 is probably the reason the Marlins failed to make the post-season. Gregg blew 9 saves including one down the stretch to the Mets that put the Marlins 7 games back. The Marlins wound up finishing 5.5 games out of the Wild-Card and 7.5 games out of the division. Take just some of those blown saves away, and things look a lot different. If the Marlins are going to succeed, they need their closer to get the job done. It is demoralizing for a team to lose games they thought they had in the bag over and over.

• Breakout Potential: --- This is going to be the year that Andrew Miller finally shows something. He's got the potential, he has had the expectations and thus far he has been a disappointment with both the Tigers and Marlins. He may have been rushed causing the issue but now with a bunch of Major League experience, he's going to be closer to what everyone thought he'd be when he originally signed his professional baseball contract. Will he win the Cy Young in 2009? No, I seriously doubt that. However, I have every expectation he will greatly improve upon his 6-10 record and 5.97 E.R.A from 2008. He's going to be a key component in the Marlins young rotation that has the potential to be one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball.

• Prediction for 2009: --- I'm thinking the Marlins will surprise people once again this year. Despite the fact they proved they could compete in 2008, there will be those out there who feel it was a fluke. It wasn't a fluke though and if anything those young players are going to play even better with one more year together. My prediction is a 91-71 record placing them second in the division. It's going to be a very difficult division with the World Champions and the rebuilt Mets bullpen in there. Those teams will be beating up on each other nearly 20 times during the season along with the improved Braves and Nationals, so 91 wins could even take the division. Some will look at this prediction and call me an optimist, but I see no reason this team can't win 91 games. The keys are staying off the Disabled List and shoring up the defense but that's the same for basically every MLB team.