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Today we continue our journey through the NL Central with a look at Greg's pick to win the NL central, the St. Louis Cardinals.

The St. Louis Cardinals

Last Season’s Result: 86-76, 4th place in the NL Central

Major Offseason Changes

• Added SS Khalil Greene (Trade with San Diego)
• Added RP Trever Miller (Signed from Tampa)
• Lost SS Cesar Izturis (Signed with Baltimore)
• Lost SP Braden Looper (Signed with Milwaukee)
• Lost SS Felipe Lopez (Signed with Arizona)
• Lost 2B Aaron Miles (Signed with Chicago Cubs)
• Lost RP Russ Springer (Signed with Oakland)

Letter Grades

• Offseason Moves: D I love this team’s chances for 2009, but they sure didn’t bend over backwards to improve their standing in the NL. The only additions they made were bringing in Khalil Greene to play shortstop, and Trever Miller’s beard for the bullpen. They have needs in the bullpen and no real second baseman at this point, although it appears they will move CF Skip Schumaker there this spring to see if he can win the job.

• Rotation Grade: B+ There’s a lot a risk here as the Cardinals are betting that former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter is finally fully recovered from injury and ready to return as a top-of-the-rotation starter. If Carpenter returns as half the pitcher he was in 2005, then this team has a great staff, whether Joel Pineiro is throwing every fifth day or not.

• Bullpen Grade: D A barn-burner of a competition for the closer’s spot between Ryan Franklin and Chris Perez. There not much here as far as names go, but pitching coach Dave Duncan is famous for getting the most out of what he has, so maybe there’s something. I just don’t see it.

• Lineup Grade: A This lineup was fourth in the NL in runs scored, and should remain near the top of the league. The Cardinals have a ton of power, lead by Albert Pujols at 1B. If this team doesn’t make the playoffs, either Pujols got hurt, or the pitching is to blame.

Player most closely linked to team’s 2009 hopes: Chris Carpenter. It’s not even remotely close. They believe Carp is back and ready to contribute. If, so this team is among the NL’s best. If not, then another MVP-type year by Pujols will go to waste.

Biggest Breakout Star Potential: Adam Wainwright. The young right-hander was well on his way to establishing himself as a big-time starting pitcher before missing two months in the middle of 2008 to injury. When Wainwright returned to the rotation in August, he appeared just as sharp as before the injury, so there’s no reason to believe that any of his success was a fluke.

Best Case Scenario: Chris Carpenter does in fact return and he starts 30 games, winning most. Pujols once again finishes as NL MVP, and leads the offense to 95 victories or more.

Worst Case Scenario: Carp once again breaks down, Pineiro struggles once again, nobody fills the hole at second. In a division that has as many as 5 wild card contenders, it won’t take much to be merely .500 and out of the postseason.

Prediction for 2009: 94-68, 1st place in the NL Central. I love this team, despite the red flags, and I think they go to the NLCS at least.

Local Thoughts

By: Nick from www.pitchershiteighth.com

• Letter Grade for Offseason Moves: I would give them a B. Many Cardinal fans have been clamoring for big, splashy, expensive free agent moves and are very upset with team ownership and management over the lack of said move. I have long held that the Cardinals are very prudent, fiscally responsible free agent spenders – along those lines they made out alright. The one glaring miss to me was not landing a better left-handed option out of the bullpen. I'm hoping that can still be remedied.

• Most Essential: Well, obviously they would struggle without Albert Pujols - but assuming that he has another ho-hum MVP-type season, I would say Chris Carpenter. The team hung its hopes on the belief that Carpenter will be healthy for all of 2009, and declined to bring in a free agent starting pitcher as insurance. With Carpenter getting 20-30 starts, the Cardinals' chances at competing in the NL Central look a lot brighter.

• Breakout Potential: There's a laundry list of young players ready to prove their worth given the right opportunity with the big club. Joe Mather is impressing at third base this spring in the absence of the injured Troy Glaus. Colby Rasmus will always be the "next big thing" until he gets his shot, which looks increasingly like it could come this year. I guess you could say he's already kind of broken out as a position player now, but Rick Ankiel still has a lot of growth to make as a fielder and at the plate - he just needs to stay healthy for an entire season to prove it. Ankiel could well be a 40-homer guy. Chris Duncan is healthy again and could really cause crowding problems in the outfield if he can regain his late-2006 form. If I had to choose one that will have the most "breakout" impact on the Cards 2009 season, I'd probably have to go with Rasmus.

• Prediction for 2009: 91-71, behind the strength of 17 wins from Chris Carpenter and another MVP season from Pujols. That'll be good enough for second place, one game back of the Cubs in the NL Central. It'll also be good enough to win the NL Wild Card by a game, over the hapless New York Mets.