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We round out the NL East today with the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta overhauled their pitching staff this offseason, but how does this affect the team's chances for 2009?


The Atlanta Braves

Last Season’s Result: 72-90, Fourth place in the NL East.

Major Offseason Changes

• Added SP Derek Lowe (Signed from LA Dodgers)
• Added SP Kenshin Kawakami (Signed from Japan)
• Added LF Garrett Anderson (Signed from Anaheim)
• Added C David Ross (Signed from Boston)
• Added SP Javier Vazquez (Trade from Chicago White Sox)
• Lost SP John Smoltz (Signed with Boston)
• Lost SP Mike Hampton (Signed with Houston)
• Lost RP Jorge Julio (signed with Milwaukee)
• Lost RP Will Ohman (Unsigned Free Agent)

Letter Grades

• Offseason Moves: A- The Braves finished 18 games under .500 in 2008, their worst season since 1990. Atlanta was 6th in the NL in runs scored, so they had an obvious need in their rotation. The Braves then added a pair of sure-fire starting pitchers in Lowe and Vazquez, and then added Kawakami to round out of potentially very good staff.
• Rotation Grade: B Jair Jurrjens and Tom Glavine bookend the three offseason additions to the starting staff. If Glavine stays healthy then every pitcher could potentially win at least 12 games, with Jurrjens and Lowe potentially winning into the high teens.
• Bullpen Grade: D+ I’m not sold on this group at all. The back end combined to pitch in 50 games in 2008, and both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano are injury prone so reaching that number this year is shaky proposition.
• Lineup Grade:B- This is a solid lineup that lacks real power, but scores runs nonetheless. The tedious health of Chipper Jones is a big concern, as he may be the best pure hitter in the National League.

Player most closely linked to team’s 2009 hopes: Kenshin Kawakami. If the Japanese veteran can contribute right away, then Braves are looking at four 200+ inning pitchers, and obviously are once again viable wild card contenders.

Biggest Breakout Star Potential: Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjen’s season in 2008 could very well be described as a breakout year, the problem was that the Braves weren’t very good, so nobody outside of Atlanta and fantasy circles knows this. This year with a better team around him, Jurrjens won’t be in a vacuum and should start to get national recognition.

Best Case Scenario: The starting rotation stays healthy and pitches over 900 innings. Chipper Jones stays healthy and once again flirts with .400. A wild card seems like a reasonable goal for this team, but I feel like the ceiling is much higher for both Philly and New York so the NL East title is probably out of reach.

Worst Case Scenario: Glavine has a repeat of ’08, Jurrjens fails to repeat his ’08, Kawakami doesn’t adjust to pitching in the major leagues. If the rotation doesn’t hold up the Braves will be under .500 for the 3rd time in four seasons.

Prediction for 2009: 83-79, 4th place in the NL East.

Local Thoughts

By: David Lee of www.BravesBuzz.Blogspot.com

• Letter Grade for Offseason Moves: B- ... The near-misses throughout the offseason have an impact on this grade. Not being able to close a deal on several players has led to many angry Braves fans, but the late additions to the rotation make up for it somewhat.

• Most Essential: The entire rotation. It's not possible to focus on one player for the Braves to have success this season. Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami, and Jair Jurrjens will all be counted on to make up for what the rotation sorely lacked last season: innings pitched and staying healthy.

• Breakout Potential: Kelly Johnson. He has very solid plate discipline and some raw power that will begin to show in the next few years. If he can cut down on strikeouts and continue to add to his power numbers, Johnson will emerge as an elite second baseman in the National League.

• Prediction for 2009: 84-77, 3rd place. The NL East is easily one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Outside of the Cubs, the Phillies and Mets are the two best teams in the National League. With the Marlins' young talent always poised for a strong run, the Braves are squeezed in the middle. My predicted record may be very biased, but I think a third place finish is their most likely destination.