Philly Sports Post - Home of the PSP Podcast

The Phillies season begins Sunday, and while they are considered favorites to win the NL East, there are a handful of major questions floating around the team. So here's an attempt to answer the big 5.


Is Chan Ho Park For Real?

What do you make of Chan Ho Park? Park signed with the Phillies this offseason, and when Park did he claimed he chose the Phillies because he was promised a chance to win the 5th spot in the starting rotation. At the time most observers took Park’s desire to start with a grain of salt, and felt that the chances of him winning the job were slim at best. I was among this group, in fact I worried that Park would end up like Ryan Franklin and spend the season sulking about not getting the job he was promised. Then spring training happened, and Park put together a dominant, and surprising, month of baseball, not just to win the job, but to win it emphatically.

Park was spectacular this spring, going 2-0, with a 2.53 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, a strikeout rate of better than one per inning, and a walk rate of less than one BB per 9 innings pitched. Park was the best pitcher the Phillies had this spring, and when you see what Joe Blanton has done as well, there is a real reason to get optimistic about the back of the Phillies rotation. That said, the question lingers, what can you expect from Park over the entire season?

Park first was a full-time starter with the LA Dodgers from 1997-2001. In LA, a notorious pitcher’s park, Chan Ho Park had 4 very good seasons sandwiching a disappointing 1999. In those 4 seasons when Park was at his peak, he averaged 217 innings and a 3.47 ERA for those four years, with a combined record of 62-38. Park turned these tremendous numbers into a 5-year, $65 million contract with the Texas Rangers.

The ballpark in Arlington is among the best hitters’ parks in all of baseball, and Park was terrible there in 3 and a half injury plagued seasons. Park ended up being traded to San Diego late in 2005, but despite returning to a pitchers park and the easier to handle National League, Park was still quite awful. After floundering in 2006 in San Diego, Park signed on with the Mets for 2007 in hopes of being their fifth starter, but it didn’t pan out, and Park made just one start in place of the injured Orlando Hernandez before returning to minors. Park spent the rest of 2007 in the minors, splitting time between the Mets’ and Astros’ organizations. Park returned to LA in 2008, and had a fine season for the Dodgers, pitching mainly from the bullpen. Park left the team after the season to pursue a shot at starting, which is what landed him in Philadelphia.

So what do you make of Park’s past, and what can we expect from him in the future? The short answer is as long as he’s missing bats and avoiding walks as he did this spring he’ll be successful at the major league level. The pitcher I saw this spring training makes you want to believe that this is a capable veteran who has a burning desire to make every team that passed on his services this offseason choke on it. Then again, I don’t think you can expect Park to maintain this level for an entire year. In fact the biggest question I have is if Park can have success at any venue other than Dodger Stadium. Chan Ho Park has a very respectable career ERA of 4.34. The problem is that at Dodger Stadium Park’s ERA is 2.96, and everywhere else it’s at an alarming 5.15.

So is Park for real? Can he be a fixture in this rotation? It’s a huge question mark. He was very good in 2008, and Park looks even better so far this season. Then again, Park has been either injured or dreadful in the last 5 seasons he attempted to be a starter. So which pitcher will we get? A focused veteran who can give you innings and strikeouts, or a Korean version of Adam Eaton? The answer to that question will go a long way to deciding the Phillies 2009 season.

Who is #2?

Game 5 of the World Series ended the championship drought that had plagued the city of Philadelphia. Game 5 also ended any debate about whether the Phillies had a true #1 starting pitcher. Cole Hamels left game 5 (sort of left, sort of was forced out by weather) having completed one of the all-time great post-season runs. Hamels went 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA, and 30 strikeouts in 35 innings, it was an amazing October that cemented him as an elite pitcher, and ended all debate about whether he was a true ace. The Phillies have several solid middle-of-the-rotation type starters, but can any of them become Cole’s sidekick, and give the Phillies a real 1-2 punch that would make the Phillies the hands-down favorite to win the NL? Let’s look at the candidates and see how they stack up.

Brett Myers: Myers will pitch on opening day, taking Hamels’ place after his elbow flared up this spring training, causing a (so far) minor setback. Is Myers capable of being a #2? Myers has shown flashes in the past of sustained success, most noticeably in 2005-06 when he had back to back seasons with a winning record, a sub 4.00 ERA, and nearly a strikeout per inning. After spending 2007 in the bullpen, Myers returned to the rotation in 2008 and was a huge disappointment. Myers was so bad in 2008, he had to be sent to the minors to try and regain his form. It appeared that he worked out his issues and over his next 11 starts; Brett went 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA and 69 strikeouts. Those 11 starts represent a third of a season where he was nothing short of brilliant, but in the other 19 starts he made Brett was 3-11 with a 6.10 ERA. Then again, that seems to be Brett Myers in a nutshell, so bad at times you want to be completely finished with him, and so good that sometimes you think he has the potential to win a Cy Young award. The first guy is a borderline fifth starter, the latter could be your ace, but when judged on a whole Brett Myers falls somewhere in between. Ideally Brett is your #3, good enough to deserve regular innings, but not consistent enough to be counted to pick your team up during a slump.

Jamie Moyer: Jamie Moyer was the Phillies #2 starter in 2008, and earned that distinction by having his best year since 2003. Moyer’s status as #2 is hardly an indictment on the Phillies staff, as Moyer was one of the top pitchers in all the National League, finishing tied for 7th with 16 wins, and tied for 15th with a 3.71 ERA. It should be noted that Moyer wasn’t so successful in the postseason, where he went 0-2 with an 8.49 ERA in 3 starts. The other questions around Moyer involve either his advanced age of 46 and his ability to stay effective, or his inconsistency. After all Moyer posted an above 5.00 ERA in 2007; so which of the last two years is a better indicator of what Moyer will give the team at his current age and physical condition? If the 2007 Moyer returns, then the Phillies will have an innings eater that will keep them in ballgames, but rarely will win a game on his own. If 2008 Moyer returns, then the Phillies will have a legitimate #2 to trust behind Hamels, at least until the postseason arrives. On most teams that’s ok, since he’ll certainly help get you to the playoffs, but with this team, with this set of lofty goals, it isn’t quite enough to be the #2 they’re looking for.

Joe Blanton: After a shaky start to his tenure in Philadelphia, Blanton settled in and went 4-0 with a 3.73 ERA in his final 11 starts. More importantly the Phillies were 9-4 overall in his 13 starts. For his career, Blanton has been inconsistent at best. Blanton owns a very nice career ERA of 4.24, which would normally be more than enough to win with this offense behind him, but most of that work came in pitcher friendly McAfee Coliseum, a far cry from the notorious hitter's haven that is Citizens Bank Park. The best case for Blanton was that he was clearly the Phillies second best starter when they needed it most; during their October run through the playoffs, going 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA. Joe also has had an excellent spring and may be ready to step up and give the Phillies that second big arm they need. Of course, that hope is based on a very small body of work, and is optimistic to say the least. Honestly, Joe most likely isn’t the guy, and much like Myers and Moyer is an asset, just not that much coveted #2.

In closing I guess it’s safe to say that entering the season the Phillies don’t have a #2 starter, but instead they have three #3’s. If that holds up, I feel like it will balance out, and over the course of the season all three of these men will fill that role at times. The big question is if one of them can do it next October when it becomes an absolute must to have a legitimate #2 starter.

Can The Phillies Bullpen Be The Best In the NL Again?

The Phillies had the National League’s best Bullpen in 2008, and need to stay among the best if they are going to repeat in 2009. There are a handful of questions surrounding this bullpen, so let’s just jump right into it.

1. Who is going to be in the bullpen this year? Well, there are the obvious names such as Lidge, Madson, Romero (eventually), Eyre, Condrey, and Chad Durbin. The final two bullpen spots will be filled from the group of J.A.Happ, Jack Taschner, Gary Majewski, and Robert Mosebach. Odds are that the Phillies keep one of the right-handers (Majewski and Mosebach) and one of the lefties (Taschner and Happ). Mosebach is a rule 5 pick that has been offered back to the Angels, and the Phillies must return him unless a trade is worked out, something the Phillies are currently working on. The fact that they offered him back shows the Phillies aren’t really looking to keep him in the majors, so that eliminates him from the mix. If I had to venture a guess, I’d say Taschner and Majewski stay, and Happ is sent to Lehigh Valley where he will continue to pitch as a starter. Happ will be the first pitcher the Phillies turn to if there is an injury, or if a starter falters.

2. Which Ryan Madson will show up this year? Ryan Madson has been up and down in his young career, but never so “up” as he was during the 2008 playoffs. Madson was dominating in the postseason, including an impressive World Series where he frequently was blazing fastballs up there at 95-98 mph, some 5-10 mph faster than Phillies fans were used to. If the postseason version of Ryan Madson shows up more nights than not, then the Phillies can consider the 8th innings locked down.

3. How much will the Phillies miss J.C. Romero during his suspension? Romero has been fantastic since joining the Phillies. In two seasons, the lefthander has appeared in 132 games and posted a 2.17 ERA. The Phillies will be hard pressed to match that type of production. Scott Eyre will apparently inherit most of those innings until Romero returns, so really this question will be answered by him. In all I expect the absence to cost the Phillies a game or two, but it’s hardly going to cripple the bullpen.

4. Can then Phillies replace the departing Rudy Seanez and Tom Gordon? I don’t think that Gary Mejewski, J.A. Happ, or Jack Taschner will ever as good a reliever as Gordon and Seasnez were once upon a time, but based on what you could expect to get from those veteran this season, the younger group the Phillies have is more than up to the challenge. The biggest question mark is Majewski, who was a valuable pitcher for the Expos/Nationals when he first came to the majors, but was dismal in his most recent two and a half years, spent in Cincinnati.

5. Can Brad Lidge Repeat His “Perfect” 2008 Season? Honestly, probably not. Oh, I’m sorry you wanted something more substantive? OK then, Lidge’s 2008 season was spectacular, and to expect the same in 2009 is unrealistic. You can expect Lidge to be among the game’s best closers, his strikeout rates alone make him among the most lethal pitchers in the game. So maybe he blows 2 or 3 saves, even then he’ll still be a strength for this team.

After all these questions, I’ll give you one simple answer; Yes expect the Phillies to have an excellent bullpen again in 2009.

Will the Lack of Right-handed Power Be a Problem?

Potions of the following are from a piece that originally ran 2-19-09.

Pat Burrell, although flawed, has maintained a certain level of production of the last few years, in fact over the past 4 seasons; Burrell averaged 31 homers and 99 RBIs. Over that time, Aaron Rowand left for San Francisco, and the Phillies attempted to replace his offense with Pedro Feliz, but Feliz was a major underachiever in 2008. So now the Phillies are left with only a single right-handed hitter who is capable of hitting 20 home runs, Jayson Werth. Werth had a breakout year in 2008, setting new career highs in games, at bats, hits, home runs, stolen bases and RBIs. Now Werth will be counted on to be the main source of power from the right side, a responsibility he may or may not be capable of handling.

The Phillies have a real problem in this regard; the only players on the team who are capable of hitting 20 homers from the right side are Jayson Werth and Jimmy Rollins. Since Jimmy is your leadoff hitter, he won’t be helping round out the middle of the lineup this season, which leaves Jayson Werth. I love what Werth did in 2008, he hit .273 and averaged a home run once every 17.42 at bats. That home run rate was fantastic, and if Werth had enough at bats he would have ranked 15th in the league sandwiched between Hanley Ramirez and Prince Fielder. The optimist in me would like to think that Werth has now come into his own, and is ready to emerge as a full-time power-hitting outfielder.

The problem with Werth is that he hit only .255 against right-handed pitching with a HR per every 32.875 at bats. Not only is Werth a potential liability against right-handed pitching, he is definitely injury prone. Jayson Werth has spent time on the DL every season of his career from 2003 through 2008, and every time it was either an oblique or wrist injury. Even when healthy, Werth has never played an entire year as a starter, and if the Phillies intend to continue the platoon situation with either Stairs or Dobbs starting against right-handed pitching, then they will be playing four lefties in the middle of the order. There is also the chance that last season was a career year, and Werth may fall back to his career averages of a .263 batting average and a homerun once every 24.45 at bats.

In all, I guess it goes without saying that the Phillies are taking a huge risk with all the faith they’ve shown in Werth. The Phillies have tried to add Gary Sheffield as an insurance policy, but his signing seems like a long shot without any playing time to offer the future Hall of Fame outfielder. So the team will apparently sink or swim with Werth being the only right handed bat in the middle of the order.

Can the Phillies Avoid Their Usual Slow Start?

The Phillies chances of repeating as World Series Champions may very well hinge on whether they can avoid the slow start that has plagued their last several seasons. In 2008, the Phillies posted a 15-13 record on April, their first winning record in the season’s opening month since 2003. Of course the Phillies didn’t exactly come blazing out of the gates last season. After struggling through the first three weeks of the year, the Phillies managed to post that winning record by ending the month with 7 wins in their final 10 games.

Recently the Phillies best hitters in April have been Pat Burrell and Chase Utley. The Phillies will need to replace their offense if they are going to avoid a poor start. Chase Utley finished last April on such a tear he was the early favorite to win the National League MVP. This April Utley enters the year on far more uncertain terms, as he is attempting to return from offseason surgery. While Utley has repeatedly said he’ll be ready for the start of the season, you have to wonder at what level he’ll start the year. Obviously, Pat Burrell’s April production is gone, replaced with Raul Ibanez who is a fine April hitter in his own right, but he must address the issues that come with switching leagues and playing in a new stadium. At best, the Phillies will suffer a slight drop-off from their best April hitters, at worst they’ll be without most of their offense to open the year.

The obvious hope is that Ryan Howard avoids a third consecutive disastrous April and picks up the slack. Howard had an excellent April in his 2006 MVP campaign, batting .306 with 5 home runs. In the spring preceding that April, Howard had a monstrous grapefruit league run bashing 11 home runs and batting .341. This spring has been Howard’s best since then, with him hitting 10 home runs so far while batting .310. If Howard’s spring leads to him skipping this season’s opening month slump, then the Phillies will be able to handle whatever loss of offense Utley’s injury and Burrell’s departure may cause.

The more likely source of early season success would be to get better pitching from the get go. Cole Hamels was the only Phillies starting pitcher who had an April ERA under 4.50. If Blanton and Park can improve on what little you got from Eaton and Kendrick last April, then things should work out pretty well. Plus, you have to expect that Moyer and Myers will perform better than last year when they combined to go 3-4 with a 4.78 ERA in 11 starts. Then again, if Myers can avoid allowing double digit homers this month that would be an improvement after he surrendered 10 last April.

In all, I think the Phillies will be able to avoid the troubles of previous Aprils, with a combination of better pitching and a big month from Ryan Howard. The improvement to the back end of the rotation is the most obvious reason to be optimistic, as Eaton and Kendrick were terrible last season. If Cole Hamels stays on track and doesn’t miss any time with his recent elbow issues, then this rotation will be a strength from the first day on. I think you can expect 13 or 14 wins out of the 22 games on the April schedule.

That about wraps up the questions, the answers will start coming in for real this Sunday.