Eagles Week 1 Review - 9/14/09

....and Jake Delhomme throws another interception. The Eagles coasted to a 38-10 win in Week 1, but at what cost? We talk about how the McNabb injury will affect the Birds, and whether or not Kolb or Vick will be at the helm if McNabb should miss extensive time. We also break down what we saw from the rest of the NFC in Week 1.

A bold endorsement

THIRTEEN AND THREE.

Since you asked, no, I’m not joking and no, I’m not drunk. This season the Philadelphia Eagles will finish the year with a 13-3 record and have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Everywhere you turn across Eagles country you hear a lot of hesitation and skepticism, nobody thinks they’re a bad team, but nobody wants to be the one trumpeting them as true contenders. I will be that man. I will drive the bandwagon, and I will bring all of you doubters, skeptics and downright haters with me.

Why 13-3, why not a more conservative 10-6 or 11-5? Here are my main reasons:

1. This is the best offense in the NFC. I am super-stoked to watch this team run up the scoreboards, B-West and D-Jax are playmakers of the highest level, and will score in bunches. Brent Celek showed me that he has what it takes to be among the NFL leaders in TD’s from the TE position. Celek had 4 in the season’s final four games, and all of those were against teams with winning records. League wide in 2008 only 9 TE scored more than 4 times, give him a season and Celek will shine.

2. Although the defense took some unfortunate losses, the flaws of this team will be shielded from exposure due to the team always playing from ahead. Gaither playing MLB hurts more if you have to play smash-mouth football, but with the offense scoring like it will teams will be forced to throw much more than they intend when they gameplan, and Gaither actually ends up being a better fit than Bradley. Our 185 pound, rookie CB turned safety Macho Harris will be much more effective in coverage than in run support, again with big Eagles leads his support won’t be oft-required in the run game.

3. Expectations are low around the city, with the Phillies dominating the headlines, and a fan base that expects between 8 and 10 wins this year, the Eagles can hopefully avoid distractions, until Vick is back anyway.

4. McNabb is the best QB in the NFC. Well, number two behind Warner. Either way, Donovan wins football games, both in the regular season and the post-season. He is starting to get older and this may be the year where he peaks, that 2-4 year run where a QB’s experience catches up to his physical skills, but before those skills really start to erode.

5. Nobody else is a true contender for the NFC crown. The Giants have no receivers (btw, please stop people from talking up Kevin Boss as if he’s a somebody, he is not I assure you. He had 33 catches in 2008, he stinks), Carolina has a joke of a QB and a shoddy defense, Arizona has a brittle QB and a shoddy defense, Green Bay is scary but Rodgers has no playoff experience and they may need time to adjust to the 3-4, Chicago has a loser at QB (17-20 career record for Cutler) and no WR’s, Dallas has no WR’s and a choke artist at QB, Washington will be good but lacks the offensive playmakers to win in the playoffs (by then Portis will be banged up as is the case every December), Minnesota has the NFL’s interception king at QB and fumble leader at RB and Childress on the sidelines, Saints have no D, Atlanta has no D and Ryan will have to win games this year instead of just not losing them, and Seattle should win the West, but Hasselbeck ain’t a playoff QB.

I refuse to join the hand-wringers out there. I will not hem, nor will I haw, the Eagles are going back to the Super Bowl, and they will finish the 2009 season with a record of 13-3. The line to jump on the bandwagon starts here. I leave you with their schedule and projected results, I plan on writing an in-depth piece on every game as they come along.

Week 1: @ Carolina. WIN
Week 2: New Orleans WIN
Week 3: Kansas City WIN
Week 4: BYE
Week 5: Tampa Bay WIN
Week 6: @ Oakland WIN (5-0 and no one will notice as the Phillies will be in the NLCS)
Week 7: @ Washington LOSS
Week 8: New York Giants WIN
Week 9: Dallas WIN
Week 10: @ San Diego WIN
Week 11: @ Chicago WIN (9-1, Back to back road wins after the World Series ends will start a short lived groundswell of support.)
Week 12: Washington LOSS (LETDOWN CITY!! After this home loss, people will have their excitement tempered)
Week 13: @ Atlanta LOSS (9-3, Now people will start to let their Eagles hate fly, this will also be the only week where Vick as QB talk will get any traction.)
Week 14: @ New York Giants WIN (Getting the angry fans to settle)
Week 15: San Francisco WIN
Week 16: Denver WIN
Week 17: @ Dallas WIN (Mike Vick plays most of this one, keeping McNabb out of harm’s way)

Week 1 Picks

Not a lot of time to do this one, I thought we would cover this in a podcast, but since thats not happening, here goes nothing. I'll pick a winner and give my confidence factor in that pick (scale of 1-5), the home team will be in CAPS.

PITT -6 over Tenn, 3 confidence factor

Miami +4 over ATL, 2 cf

BALT -13 over Kansas City, 3 cf

Phila -2.5 over CAR, 2 cf

Denver +4 over CIN, 3 cf

Minn -4 over CLEV, 4 cf

HOU -4.5 over Jets, 2 cf

INDY -7 over Jax, 4 cf

NO -13 over Det, 4 cf

TAMPA +6 over Dallas, 2 cf

SanFran +6.5 over ARI, 3 cf

Wash +6.5 over NYG, 3 cf

SEA -8.5 over St. Louis, 4 cf

GBAY -3.5 over Bears, 4 cf

SD -9 over Oakland, 5 cf

NE -10.5 over Buff, 3 cf

I'll be sure to keep track of my record as the season progresses, now let's go play some football!!!

RAAAAA- (EWWWWWWWWW) LLLLL

You would imagine that being a Phillies fan is about as easy right now as it has ever been. After all the Phils are 8 games ahead in the NL East with just a month remaining in the season, they feature a rotation that is the league’s best since they acquired Cliff Lee, and let’s not forget they are the defending world champions. Yet anxiety runs rampant through the hearts and minds of the Phillies faithful following. The three biggest concerns are the lack of a bench, the disastrous season of still-closer-for-now Brad Lidge (For more on Lidge and the bench, check out the 8/31 podcast), and the disappearance of top free agent acquisition Raul Ibanez.

Ibanez started the season on a monster tear and quickly won over the fans, for his efforts Raul was rewarded with his first all-star selection. On June 18th, Raul’s hot start was sidetracked by a strained groin and a trip to the DL. Raul would come off of the DL on July 10th just 4 days before the all-star game, which drew speculation that he returned earlier than necessary to ensure he could play in his first mid-summer classic. Ibanez and Coach Charlie Manuel both have said that they do not believe the injury is still an issue, but that speculation has gained steam since Ibanez has been nothing short of terrible since his return. Even more concerning is that Ibanez has traditionally been a superior player in the second half of the year.

Over the last three seasons with Seattle, Raul has hit 30 points higher, slugged 50 points higher, and he has had better HR and RBI rates in the second half. For him to be this off is especially concerning due to his track record and the fact that he has no precedence for this type of fall off. If the injury is still lingering, the Phillies need to sit Ibanez for as long as necessary to get him 100% for October. Heck, maybe the extra playing time for Stairs, Dobbs, and Bruntlett can get one of them into rhythm. If the injury truly isn’t a factor, than the team has a scarier possibility to face, maybe Ibanez is just getting old, and maybe a three-year deal was a bit much.

Ibanez was signed to replace LF Pat Burrell, and was paid $3 million more annually than Burrell got to sign with Tampa. It hardly seems worth it at this point if you compare Burrell’s 2008 with Ibanez’s 2009:

Burrell- .250 avg/ 33 HR’s/ 86 RBI’s
Ibanez- .274 avg/ 27 HR’s/ 79 RBI’s

Now Raul still has a month to play, but if he continues his slide he’ll end up around .260/30/90. So is it worth an extra $16 million in a contract to add .010 to a batting average, and to get a handful more RBI’s? I don’t think so. Remember, the Phillies have Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown lurking in the minors, and Raul is entrenched in LF for two more seasons, so there’s a chance we’ll ship out the younger and more vital Werth and/or Victorino to save money and make room for the youngsters. There’s a chance that Ibanez’s third year becomes an Adam Eaton type albatross. If after the 2010 season we lose Cliff Lee to free agency while not getting value from Ibanez’s $10 million salary, it will be a big issue to fans.

The only criticism I have of this front office is they offer big money to guys with red flags, Tom Gordon was old, Brad Lidge was too hit or miss, Adam Eaton was the league’s worst pitcher, and Raul Ibanez, like Gordon, is old. Also like Tom Gordon, Raul started out doing well for himself, but over time he seems less and less worth the investment. His struggles not only cast doubt over the World Series hopes of the 2009 Phillies, but for the next two seasons as well.

Raul has been consistently a .295/22/105 type of offensive player, and in our park and with our lineup, you should expect better. With that classic Ibanez, the Phillies are the best offensive team in the league, without him they regress to being merely very good. For now I think he needs either a Brad Lidge-type DL stint, or a Jimmy Rollins-style benching, but either way we should try something because it quite literally can’t get any worse than this.

AFC Preview 9-8-09

We finish up our NFL Preview by looking at the AFC. Is Pittsburgh good enough to repeat, or will the return of Tom Brady mean a return trip to the Superbowl for the Patriots? Is LT out of gas? How will B-Dawk do in the Mile High City?

NFC Preview - 09/04/09

Are you ready for some football? We get ready for the 2010 season by covering every division in football. First up is the NFC. Can Brett Favre lead the Vikes to the Superbowl? Can the Eagles make another run? Will the Lions win a game? Whats your take on the NFC?